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Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar appears set to retain power, with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) projected to secure a comfortable majority in the state assembly elections, according to the India TV-Matrize exit poll results telecast on Monday.
The survey predicts that the NDA could win between 147 and 167 seats in the 243-member Bihar assembly — well above the majority mark of 122.
As per the press release, the Mahagathbandhan (MGB), an alliance led by Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) along with the Congress and Left parties, is projected to secure between 70 and 90 seats, falling significantly short of the ruling coalition. Counting of votes will take place on November 14.
The exit poll also indicates that Prashant Kishor’s newly formed Jan Suraj Party may get only zero to two seats, while Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM could manage two to three seats. ‘Others’ are likely to win between zero and five seats.
Within the NDA, the BJP is projected to win 65 to 73 seats, JD(U) 67 to 75, Hindustani Awami Morcha (HAM) 4 to 5, Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) 7 to 9, and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) 1 to 2 seats. In contrast, the MGB’s seat distribution shows the RJD leading with 53 to 58 seats, the Congress likely to secure 10 to 12, CPI(ML) Liberation between 5 and 8, while CPI and CPI(M) are expected to win 2 to 3 seats each. The Vikassheel Insaan Party, led by Mukesh Sahani, is expected to win 1 to 4 seats.
On the vote share front, the NDA is estimated to capture 48 percent of the total votes, while the MGB may get 37 percent. AIMIM and Jan Suraj Party are projected to secure 1 percent and 5 percent of votes respectively, while Others could account for 9 percent. The survey also highlights a strong gender-wise divide with NDA reportedly garnering 65 percent of female votes compared to 52 percent among men, while the MGB trails at 27 percent among women and 36 percent among male voters.
The India TV-Matrize exit poll findings are based on a random sampling survey conducted across constituencies using both field and CATI methods. The sample size comprised 66,087 voters including 31,722 men and 19,165 women with a margin of error of plus or minus three percent.
