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3 months ago 04:17:05pm


New Delhi, 21-April-2021, By Karan Taurani, VP, Elara Capital


#SalmanKhan’s #Radhe will release simultaneously in cinemas and digital mediums [pay per view] on 13 May 2021…

View and Impact analysis

With cinemas being shut in many states (Mah, Guj, Rajasthan, Delhi, Chattisgarh), it is highly unlikely that cinema will see any benefit of this

Further , this film will hit cinemas – only single screens and not multiplexes as they haven’t agreed for this simultaneous release. For multiplexes, this is just like another film going on OTT

TVOD as a model has not picked up well in global markets too with Disney’s Mulan and other large films; we thereby believe that this model is still too nascent for a market like India and one cannot expect any big positive surprises. We had already anticipated that certain large films may go direct OTT or TVOD route given the current rush for content coming into cinemas whenever they open up; expect some more small/medium budget films too to hit the direct OTT route as all May not wait for cinemas to open up

We maintain our view that national exhibitors (multiplexes) will never agree for simultaneous release and are not in favour of reducing window less than 4 weeks temporarily

Sooryavanshi is expected to come toward July and 83 will come towards aug with a lower window – 4 weeks vs 6-8 weeks . Window will remain low till aug/sep and post that it will be move to pre covid terms

Distributor share also will be higher – about 6-8% higher vs pre covid average distributor share of 47-48% pre Covid

We believe Cinema stocks have largely bottomed out at current levels after the recent fall of almost 20% since one month ; long term prospects remain strong due to 1) vaccination opening up for all ages 2) liquidity issues addressed due to recent fund raising 3) big consolidation/mkt share gain expected as single screens / selective smal chains suffer due to liquidity 4) rentals expected to move to rev.share in medium term 5) large content pipeline due to a big backlog of releases (only 24 films have gone directly on OTT in last one year)

(The views expressed in the article are those of the writer and indianbroadcastingworld.com need not necessarily subscribe those views)

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