Listed broadcasters overall performance
Z inching back yet STAR holding gains for top spots:- Z reported stable performance in January’21, as its flagship channels have launched new shows during the month to recoup the lost viewership share & attract the audience with new content. However, during the month it maintained the second position and has started recovering after the sharp drop in last 3-4 months across key regional genres where Zee commanded strong position earlier largely Marathi & Bangla as they faced heat from STAR’s flagship channels in respective genres.
Zee Group continues to lead in regional genres, such as Kannada, gaining 74bp within the genre. Zee remains second within the Marathi genre as STAR Pravah continues to hold gains of 3709bp over last 9 months for 42.7% share for the top spot, ahead of group-level share of Zee, which stood at 36.4% (combined), gradually recovering after hitting a low of 35.9% in Dec’20 with new prime-time show launches. Within the Bangla genre too, it retained the second spot with minor viewership gains of 12bp MoM as STAR Jalsha remains stable at top, with popular programs, such as Mohor which continue to gain traction during the month over Z’’s top shows, Krishna Koli & Jamuna Dhaki. Within the Tamil and Telugu genres, Z’ reported a stable performance, with Zee Tamil gaining 24bp MoM for the third spot, while ending up second in the Telugu genre with gains of 73bp MoM performance for Zee Telugu.
Zee Group had a mixed performance within the movies genre as flagship channel Zee Cinema remained in third place with 17.9% viewership share, down 60bp MoM despite increased competition from Sony & STAR Channels, however Zee Anmol Cinema lost its spot in Top 5 as STAR Utsav Movies gained traction to enter the list. Within the GEC genre, viewership share was stable for Z channels; whereby ZeeTV was fourth in the GEC (urban) segment with minor loss of 26bp MoM to 10.9% share. Within the Hindi GEC (rural) genre, Z Anmol was second with stellar gains of 277bp MoM to 16.8%, regaining Aug’20 levels. Z Anmol & Z’s Big Magic had combined 21.1% share next to STAR Group within the genre.
Flagship channel regaining share; Sun Bangla gains
SunTV, the flagship channel, retained its top position within the Tamil genre; and saw some continued momentum in viewership gains by 126p MoM to 38.2% recovering after the low in Oct’20 of 36.4% share. However channel is yet to regain pre-COVID 40%+ benchmark levels. KTV, SunTV Group’s other movie offering in the Tamil genre, has stabilized at 11.1% share since Oct’20, after a continuous drop in viewership share in last 9 months by 950bp MoM.
Within the Kannada genre, Udaya TV remains under pressure as it has continued in fourth spot, losing 65bp MoM and continuing losing streak for since May’20 by 1886bp to 14.1% from being a table topper back in May. In the Telugu genre, Gemini TV remains in the fourth position with gains of 55bp MoM to 14.2% share. Sun Bangla has been gaining traction within the Bangla genre as it jumped to third spot with gains of 18bp MoM to 7% viewership share (up 420bp over the last 6 months).
Within the regional GEC genre, impressions saw an dip in Jan’21, whereby amongst key genres, Tamil declined 9.3% MoM, Telugu and Kannada impressions declined by 7.4% MoM and 4.5% MoM, respectively.
Within the Hindi GEC (urban+rural) genre, impressions count were down 6,4% MoM while in case of individual Hindi GEC (urban) & (rural) genres, they declined 7% MoM for Hindi GEC (urban) and declined 6.8% MoM for Hindi GEC (rural). Other genres like Hindi movies saw an uptick by 5.3% MoM(including STAR Utsav Movies which replaced Zee Anmol Cinema), excluding which decline was 22.4% MoM. In case of Marathi viewership, impressions declined 4% MoM(including Fakt Marathi which replaced Shemaroo Marathi Baana during the month), excluding which decline was 13.1% MoM while the Hindi News genre impressions were not reported during the month.
We recommend Buy rating on Z with a TP of lNR 300 based on 16x one-year forward P/E after factoring in Zee5 valuation and worst case scenario of write-offs on the balance sheet. We recommend Reduce on SUNTV with a TP of INR 535 based on 14.5x one-year forward P/E. We recommend our Buy rating on TVTN with a TP of lNR 350 based on 10.5x one-year forward P/E.