Even as US president Donald Trump waded into the Netflix, Warner Bros. Discovery deal, dampening market sentiments a bit, Singapore-based media, telecom and technology consultancy firm Media Partners Asia (MPA) dubbed the proposed marriage of two media giants as complex and challenging.
Netflix’s $ 72 billion Warner Bros deal has led to several price target cuts by Wall Street analysts as US President Donald Trump warned of market-share concerns, underscoring the tough scrutiny that the acquisition is likely to face, a Reuters report stated yesterday.
The deal that combines the world’s largest streaming service with HBO Max and a major Hollywood studio has also drawn criticism from bipartisan lawmakers and unions on concerns it could lead to job cuts and higher prices for consumers, Reuters emphasised.
Trump warned on Sunday (Nov. 7) while speaking at the Kennedy Center (in the US) that the combined group’s enlarged market share “could be a problem” and that he will be involved in the decision.
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told CNBC yesterday that the US Justice Department would examine the deal’s impact for “quite a while.”
Netflix has agreed to a $5.8 billion termination fee if it cannot obtain regulatory approval, in a sign of confidence of a greenlight. To ease concerns of market concentration, it is likely to argue that the market for online video also includes YouTube and TikTok — two of the most popular platforms with hundreds of millions of users.
Hollywood unions have voiced concerns about increased market concentration, reduced film output and the potential for higher consumer costs.
Rival bidder Paramount Skydance has said the deal process was biased, raising chances of a higher bid or a hostile takeover. The political dynamics may be further complicated by Warner Bros Discovery’s rejection of Paramount Skydance, a studio with Trump connections, in favour of Netflix, analysts said.
MPA Says Deal Complex & Challenging: Meanwhile, Singapore-based consultancy firm Media Partners Asia, which specialises in media, telecom, sports and entertainment industries in the Asia-Pacific region yesterday said the Netflix-WBD deal is complex and challenging.
“Our detailed analysis reveals a more complex, defensive, and financially engineered transaction with opportunity and challenge,” MPA said in a LinkedIn post, enumerating yesterday some of the highlights.
The MPA has identified the following issues in its analysis of the details:
The HBO Anomaly: Contrary to the “streaming-only” narrative, Netflix acquires the HBO linear pay TV channel, securing high-margin carriage fees as a cash bridge along with licensing and theatrical.
The Content Lock: Strict covenants forbid WBD from licensing away crown jewel IP during the regulatory limbo, ensuring Netflix inherits the library unencumbered.
The Tax Poison Pill: A two-year restriction on the spun-off linear networks effectively sidelines further consolidation with players like Paramount until 2028.
Asia Pacific: The deal creates a US$6.6 billion revenue (2025 ARR) giant in APAC, likely forcing a rapid reshuffling of alliances as local partners brace for a post-2027 licensing cliff.
A New Global #1: The combined entity hits US$70 billion pro forma ARR, eclipsing YouTube (incl. gross ads and net subs) and Disney (ex-Parks, CP & Experiences) to claim the top entertainment spot globally.
The Super-Studio: Netflix secures a deep IP moat and a major US production engine.
Culture Clash & Limbo: Merging Freedom & Responsibility with legacy Hollywood risks a talent drain, while the 18+ month regulatory timeline creates challenges potentially until 2027.
Sacrifices: Servicing the US$59 billion debt likely forces a pullback on live sports bidding and other forward-looking opportunities, leaving an opening for Amazon and Disney.
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