Today is the 6th consecutive day, Mumbai reported high number of cases – avg has gone up to almost 800 cases per day in this time frame vs earlier avg of 300-400
We will monitor this situation closely and if this increase toward 1000-1200 were to persist, there may be night curfew imposed in Mumbai too
As indicated, mah circuit accounts for almost 26% of the box office for Hindi films and announcement of Sooryavanshi continues to delay
We believe Sooryavanshi will release for sure on 2nd April – however if the situation in Mah is tough or worsens it will Defi impact bargaining power of the producers with exhibitors – which means there could be a further reduction in window from 4 weeks which was almost agreed upon and also the higher distributor share of over 60% being asked for
The above means bargaining power of exhibitors will be negatively impacted given the Covid situation in mah – let’s hope that the situation is not here to stay like it was in the case of last week Dec which did see a spike only for a few days
We continue to believe that Covid second wave is not a threat for india as other parts dont pose such a big risk – however, rise in cases does create a fear in minds of ppl and impacts sentiment negatively which will definitely impact cinema footfalls
Recent example of a movie like Tom and Jerry too did a weekend collection of mere INR 2.25cr much lower than other films like WW and Tenent as children and family crowd still refrains to go for cinema
On the other hand, the good news is 1) that overseas market is showing some respite with New York recently opening up with 25% occupancy which will slowly ensure revival of large scale Hollywood content 2) multiple regional films have reported strong set of collections even after the success of Master, which means the demand is here to stay
Hence we hope that the Mah issue resolves sooner than expectation which can ensure steady flow and rebound of Hindi content which contributes almost 60% of the domestic box office
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