US President Donald Trump’s Sunday announcement on his Truth Social threatening 100 per cent tariff on movies produced outside and coming to the US will impact the box office business of Indian films and may lead to a dramatic reduction in footfall in theatres in that country, say producers in India.

Will the flip-flop US stand on tariffs also impact the Indian government’s policy aimed at promoting foreign shooting of films and web series in India by handing out cash incentives up to over 40 percent? It’s still not clear. Whether and how President Trump’s latest tariff script impacts streaming platforms like Netflix, Prime Video, JioHotstar, Zee5, Apple, etc is still fuzzy.

A PTI report stated yesterday though there is little clarity just yet, the fear is that ticket prices for Indian films will go up in the US and therefore impact business, according to a section of industry insiders, including Shibasish Sarkar, president of the Producers Guild of India, filmmaker Vivek Agnihotri and exhibitor-distributor Akshay Rathi.

“It is a little early to comment on this because whatever kind of tariff got announced in the last 30 to 45 days is going through various changes and discussions… But if it gets implemented, the first impact I foresee is on the theatrical business of our films in the US market,” Sarkar told PTI.

However, the UK’s The Guardian reported that the White House said on Monday that no final decisions have been made about imposing tariffs on foreign films, just a day after the US president declared 100 percent tariff on all movies produced outside the United States.

“Although no final decisions on foreign film tariffs have been made, the administration is exploring all options to deliver on President Trump’s directive to safeguard our country’s national and economic security while Making Hollywood Great Again,” The Guardian quoted White House spokesperson Kush Desai as saying.

Meanwhile in India, filmmaker Shekhar Kapur criticised Trump for threatening a 100 percent tariff on films imported to the US, saying the move could backfire and instead push Hollywood filmmakers to leave the country, the PTI report said.

In a post Sunday night on his Truth Social platform, Trump said he has authorised the Department of Commerce and the Office of the US Trade Representative to slap a 100 per cent tariff “on any and all Movies coming into our Country that are produced in Foreign Lands”.

Kapur, known for films such as ‘Mr India’, the ‘Elizabeth’ franchise starring Cate Blanchett and ‘What’s Love Got to Do with It?’, said over “75 percent of box office” of Hollywood films comes from outside the US.

“And significant part of the budget of those films are spent outside the US. President Trump’s imposition of 100% tarif on all films imported into the US may encourage Hollywood to move outside the US! Quite the opposite of what he intended. #Hollywood #tarrif #DonaldTrump #tarrifonfilm (sic)” the director wrote on X.

Filmmaker Anurag Kashyap simply shared Trump’s comments on his Instagram Stories without comment.

“The Movie Industry in America is DYING a very fast death,” Trump wrote, complaining that other countries “are offering all sorts of incentives to draw” filmmakers and studios away from the US.

“This is a concerted effort by other Nations and, therefore, a National Security threat. It is, in addition to everything else, messaging and propaganda!” he added in his post.

Agnihotri, who directed ‘The Kashmir Files’, called the decision a “disastrous move”, stating that the Indian film industry will collapse.

Resharing Trump’s post on X, Agnihotri, according to a news18.com report, wrote, “ALERT: Trump’s 100% Movie Tariff Threatens Indian Cinema: Trump’s 100% tariff on movies is a disastrous move. If this absurdity prevails, India’s struggling film industry will collapse entirely, with no one to save it. Indian film leaders must wake up, unite, and fight this threat instead of chasing paparazzi and self-glorification.”

An Associated Press dispatch from New York yesterday stated it wasn’t immediately clear how any such tariff on international productions could be implemented. It’s common for both large and small films to include production in the US and in other countries. Big-budget movies like the upcoming ‘Mission Impossible—The Final Reckoning’, for instance, are shot around the world.

Incentive programmes for years have influenced where movies are shot, increasingly driving film production out of California and to other States and countries with favourable tax incentives, like Canada and the United Kingdom.

The AP report added that China has ramped up its domestic movie production, culminating in the animated blockbuster ‘Ne Zha2’ grossing more than $ 2 billion this year. But even then, its sales came almost entirely from mainland China. In North America, it earned just $20.9 million.

In New Zealand, where successive governments have offered rebates and incentives in recent years to draw Hollywood films to the country, the film industry has generated billions of dollars in tourism revenue driven by the ‘Lord of the Rings’ and ‘Hobbit’ films, which featured the country’s pristine and scenic vistas.

More recently, the blockbuster ‘Minecraft’ movie was filmed entirely in New Zealand, and US productions in 2023 delivered $1.3 billion New Zealand dollars ($777 million) to the country in return for NZ$200 million in subsidies, according to government figures.

The Motion Picture Association, which represents major US film studios and streaming services, didn’t immediately respond to messages Sunday evening.

The MPA’s data shows how much Hollywood exports have dominated cinemas. According to the MPA, the American movies produced $22.6 billion in exports and $15.3 billion in trade surplus in 2023.

Trump has long voiced concern about movie production moving overseas. Shortly before he took office, he announced that he had tapped actors Mel Gibson, Jon Voight and Sylvester Stallone to serve as “special ambassadors” to Hollywood to bring it “BACK — BIGGER, BETTER, AND STRONGER THAN EVER BEFORE!”

US film and television production has been hampered in recent years, with setbacks from the COVID-19 pandemic and union strikes, etc. Overall production in the US was down 26 percent last year compared with 2021, according to data from ProdPro, which tracks production.