As per our channel checks and as indicated earlier Sooryavanshi will be announcing release dates soon – it will either be Holi or Good Friday – around that time
VP, Elara Capital
Further, in terms of states opening up , most of the states too will open up in the next 6-8 weeks – Delhi, Mah and UP contribute almost 60% of the Hindi Box office , remain to be a key
As of now, only Rajasthan and Jharkhand DONT have any cinemas until now, however they very small in terms of share (not more than 5-7% put together)
We believe even if the producers have visibility of 70% of the states opening up 100% occupancy, they will start announcing dates in the coming weeks for other films too – as indicated earlier, TN and WB already have 100% allowed (TN which had rolled back will now revise it to 100%)
In terms of other key states where we expect a high probability of 100% revision soon are Gujarat, UP, Mah, Delhi for Hindi content
In terms of regional, our checks indicate that all the states – Karnataka, AP, Telangana should announce the revision soon – except Kerala, which indicates that new release announcements will start in south as well
The only loss now for larger films is the overseas collection share which is usually close to 10% of the overall film revenue; producers will try to reduce the OTT window on a mere temporary basis to compensate for their losses so that the film can be monetized with global audiences too – however, in the longer run the window will come back to 6-8 weeks; further, the Master window reduction to 15 days was a mere one time as the exhibitor/distributor now have strict penalty clause into their contracts with producers in case the window is less than 4 weeks.
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