Who would have thought exit polls — with a chequered history of predictions — carried out in the biggest democracy in the world would make it as a case study in an Ivy League business school? But that exactly what has happened with India Today-Axis exit polls.

The research and multi-layered mechanism of the exit polls carried out by the India Today group, in association with Axis, has become the first ever case study at the Harvard Business School.

“Known for its most accurate predictions, the India Today Group’s exit-poll mechanism has made its way to the Harvard Business School curriculum,” an official statement from India Today said.

The India Today-Axis-My-India post-poll surveys have given the most definitive predictions in about 95 per cent of all the elections that took place in India between 2013 and 2020.

The case study, now part of the HBS’ classroom course on elections, highlights the complexity associated with successfully predicting elections in the world’s largest democracy, with all its diversity, varied geographies, shared international borders, sprawling rural populations and 23 different languages, India Today statement said.

The case study, written by Professor Ananth Raman, Senior Associate Ann Winslow, and Research Associate Kairavi Dey, discusses the process that goes behind forecasting elections in India and the methods the TV channel uses to analyze data along with the research firm to reach accurate forecasts — from selection of field surveyors, hiring and training, data-collection technology, quality auditing, data analysis to final forecasting.

The statement quoted Professor Ananth Raman, UPS Foundation Professor of Business Logistics Chair, OPM, HBS, as saying that predicting elections accurately in an “extremely complex country like India is indeed challenging”.

Professor Raman also mentioned that while they have seen numerous examples of experienced organizations struggling to predict election outcomes in the recent past, this case illustrates how a robust mechanism devised a process to predict outcomes most accurately.

What sets it apart from all the other competitive surveys is its reach across the length and breadth of the country (700+ districts), an average survey size of over 500,000 people for national surveys, GPS-enabled tablets to maintain geographical sanctity, as well as computer-aided questionnaires backed by social intelligence to garner maximum data veracity.

The India Today Group is a diversified Indian media conglomerate and has businesses across TV, publishing, digital and other media platforms.