According to an ABP Network-CVoter survey of the election-bound Indian States, BJP is likely to win in Uttar Pradesh and Goa, while Manipur and Uttarakhand are showing signs of nail-biting contests for power. In Punjab, AAP is predicted to form the government as it’s inching close to the majority mark.

India’s election regulator, the Election Commission, had recently announced poll dates for five States with UP to have them over seven phases from February 10 to March 7, 2022.

While the States of Punjab, Uttarakhand and Goa will vote on February 14 and Manipur on February 27 and March 3. The election results will be declared on March 10.

Conducted along with research partner CVoter (Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research), the opinion poll aims to provide a clearer picture of how the ballot game stands in the five states, ABP Network said in a statement Tuesday.

The ABP Network-CVoter survey revealed that as per public opinion in Uttar Pradesh, Yogi Adityanath is likely to become the first chief minister to beat anti-incumbency and retain the State for the BJP. Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party remains the strongest challenger to the ruling BJP ahead of the seven phased polls.

According to data out by ABP Network, BJP is retaining UP with a 41.5 percent vote share (223 to 235 seats), followed by Samajwadi Party with a 33.3 percent vote share (145 to 157 seats). BSP is in third position with a 12.9 percent vote share (8 to 16 seats).

According to the survey, Aam Aadmi Party is leading in Punjab with 39.7 percent vote share (52 to 58 seats), whereas Indian National Congress (INC) stands second with 35.9 percent vote share (37 to 43 seats). Shiromani Akali Dal grabs the third spot with a 17.7 percent vote share (17 to 23 seats).

In Uttarakhand, BJP is maintaining its lead position with 38.6 percent vote share (31 to 37 seats), while INC stands second with 37.2 percent (30 to 36 seats) votes; AAP grabs the third spot with 12.6 percent (2 to 4 seats).

In Manipur, the BJP is leading with a 35.5 percent vote share (23 to 27 seats) whereas INC stands second with 32.6 percent vote share (22-26 seats).

In Goa, BJP is leading with a 32 percent vote share (19-23 seats) followed by AAP and INC with 22.5 percent (5 to 9 seats) and 19.8 percent (4 to 8 seats) vote share, respectively.

Detailing the methodology used in the survey, the ABP statement stated the C-Voter survey reached out to a total of approximately 89,536+ across five States. It was conducted through CATI (telephonic survey). The results are subject to a margin of error: +/- 3 percent and confidence: +/- 5 percent.