TV: We expect Zee Entertainment and SunTV to report decline in ad revenues of 3% YoY and 8% YoY, respectively, as ad spends have seen a pickup from the festive season & are almost back to pre-COVID levels. Further, even the pricing has comeback with the festive season uptick, resumption of GEC prime-time content, IPL season & cricketing events like India v/s Australia resuming during the quarter. Higher decline for SunTV is expected as the flagship channel lost viewership share during the quarter. TV Today is estimated to witness ad revenue growth of 4%, led by continued traction for news genre & Bihar elections happening in Oct-Nov’20 where Aaj Tak commands a strong market share. On Subscription revenues growth for Z is expected to witness a flattish growth, while SunTV is expected to witness a 12% growth YoY on the back of Tamil Nadu digitization. Other operating revenues are expected to remain flat QoQ for Z given no big new movie release & Zeeplex launch not having any material contribution to the topline. SUNTV on the other hand, will recognize the balance IPL revenues during the quarter to the tune of INR 1150mn during the quarter.
EBITDA margins will remain under pressure as programming costs will come back with the restart of live shows & continued content investment for OTT platforms & thus expect Z/SUNTV/TVTN to report 19%/65.5% & 21% EBITDA Margins respectively.
Exhibitors: Inox/PVR are expected to see some green shoots with theatre re-opening on the revenue front as ~ 70-75% of total screens for PVR & Inox have already started; Hollywood blockbusters like Tenet & Wonder woman have showcased decent collections of INR 110mn & 80mn (in the first 8 days) respectively. Based on the govt guidelines of 50% occupancy cap, PVR & Inox are expected to report occupancy levels of 4% & 2.5% respectively during Q3FY21. Exhibitors are expected to report an operating EBITDA loss due to employee costs, CAM charges, other fixed costs however, force majeure being invoked will help in rental costs savings which constitutes the largest component amongst the fixed costs. We expect PVR/Inox to report cash burn in the range of INR 500-550mn/250-300mn/month per month as occupancies will continue to remain poor in the initial 3 months post opening due to lack of adequate content supply
Radio: We expect a revenue decline of 40%/35% YoY for the radio segment of ENIL and MBL respectively as despite the recovery in overall ad spends, radio has continued to be a laggard given the shift towards digital mediums, weakness in the government vertical & pricing pressures which are expected to persist in near term. Also, ENIL’s non-radio i.e. solutions business will not provide any respite given the halt of on-ground activations, cancellation of big outdoor events, shows etc. constituting 65-70% of the solutions business, however the digital products business which contributes 30-35% of the solutions business will remain resilient considering the strong traction towards digital. We thereby expect ENIL’s solutions business to report a decline of 50% YoY during the quarter after a 66% decline in Q2FY21.